Part 1: Dead Fish on Lamotrek/Ek ko Rej Mej ilo Lamotrek

Part 2: The Pacific’s Quiet Transformation/An Pacific Ukoktak ilo Jokāne

Part 3: Preparing for What May Come/Pojak Ñan Ta eo Emaroñ Itok

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Part 2 (Marshallese)

Ñan elōñ armej, El Niño ej baj meḷeḷein an ḷapḷọk an bwil ak dikḷọk an wōt. Bōtaab ilo ṃool, ej juon iaan oktak ko reḷap tata ilo mejatoto ilo Iaḷ in.

Ej jino taujin ṃael ettolọk ilo Pacific iturin equator eo, ijo im lọjet im mejatoto rej ekkā aer jerbal ippān doon ilo juon joñak eo jejjōt im epidodo an oktak.

Ilo wāwein eo ekkā, kōto ko rej būr jān iturear ñan iturilik (trade winds) rej wōnṃaanḷọk wōt im būr, im rej iuuj dān eo eṃāāṇāṇ ioon lọjet ñan Indonesia, Papua New Guinea im Micronesia. Dān eo eṃāāṇāṇ ej kōṃṃan an ejaak kōdọ ko reutiej im kobban wōt, ekkūtkūt an wōt, im an eḷap menin eddek ko ilo ijoko iturilik in Pacific. Ilo ejja ien eo, dān eo eṃōḷoḷọk im eḷap kein mour iloan ej wanlōñtak jān tu ioḷap in lọjet itōrerein South America, im ej kōṃṃan an eḷap ek im an eṃṃan jerbal in eọñwōd ilo jet iaan ijoko eḷap tata an ek ilo Iaḷ in.

Ilo ien El Niño, joñak eo jejjōt ikōtaan lọjet im mejatoto ej jino ṃōjṇoḷọk. Kōto ko rej būr jān iturear ñan iturilik rej dikḷọk aer kajoor. Jet iien rej oktak im būr ñan bar juon tu, meñe ejjab aetok. Dān eo eḷap an māāṇāṇ im ekkā an pād iturin Micronesia ej jino jebar ḷọk ñan iturear, ñan tu ioḷap im iturear in Pacific. Ijo dān eo eṃāāṇāṇ ej eṃṃakūt ḷọk ie, wōt eo ej bar ḷoore.

Ñan Micronesia iturilik, jorāān ko remaroñ lukkun ḷap.

Yap. Palau. Guam. The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Im eñanin aolepān Chuuk.

Ilo aelōñ kein, ekkā an dikḷọk an wōt ñe El Niño ej kajoorḷọk. Jikin ko rej kakwōn dān in wōt ej dikḷọk dān eo ej bar kobain. Dān ko rej ettōr rej dikḷọk. Menin eddek ko rej ṃōrā. Kein ekkat ko rej pen aer eddek ilo an wōnṃaanḷọk wōt im ṃōrāḷọk.

Ñan aelōñ wōd ko rettā āinwōt Lamotrek, Satawal, Woleai im elōñ iaan Northwest Islands ko an Chuuk, eḷap tata kauwōtata eo.

Aelōñ ko reoktak jān āne ko raar ejaak jān volcano im ewōr reba im jikin dān eo ej waḷọktok jān bwidej. Ilo aelōñ ko, ej tarrin ejjeḷọk ṃōttan dān eo ej pād wōt ie.

Ijellọkin, rej atartar joñan in aolep ioon wōt.

Dān erreo ej koba ilo tank ko an ṃōn jokwe, ak ej ejaak āinwōt juon ṃōttan dān eo edik im ej pād iuṃwin bwidej, ioon dān in jọọḷ. Ilo ien ṃōrā eo aetok kitien, ṃōttan dān erreo in ej dikḷọk, im kōṃṃan bwe dān in jọọḷ en kere wanlōñtak ḷọk ñan aebōj ko im jikin kallib iaraj ko.

Juon ien wōt eo ejjab kanooj wōt emaroñ bōktok elōñ apañ.

Jejjo allōñ im ejjab lukkun wōt emaroñ oktak ñan juon jorāān eḷap ñan mour an armej.

Bwebwenato eṃōj an kwaḷọk joñan an aelōñ kein pidodo aer jorāān.

Katak ko Jān Ien ṃōrā

Rūtto ro ilo aelōñ ko rej kememej wōt El Niño eo an 1982–83.

Ilo ien eo, ej juon iaan El Niño ko reḷap tata aer kajoor eṃōj an armej loe.

Ipelaakin Micronesia, eaar lukkun dikḷọk an wōt ilo elōñ jikin. Kein ekkat ko raar jorāān. Jukjukinpād ko raar lukkun atartar ioon dān in wōt eo eṃōj aer kakwōne. Kien ko raar aikuj ṃōkaj aer bōktok kein aikuj ilo ien idiñ ñan aelōñ ko ilikin.

Bōtaab El Niño eo an 1997–98 eo eaar pād wōt ilo kememej an armej.

Ri katak in mejatoto ro rej watōke wōt āinwōt juon iaan El Niño ko reḷaptata aer kajoor eṃōj an armej jei ilo record.

Ipelaakin Micronesia iturilik, eaar dikḷọk dān ilo jikin kakwōn dān ko reḷḷap, reba ko raar jidik wōt aer tor, im tank in dān in wōt ko raar kememej. Kijeek ko reḷḷap raar ur ilo āne ko im eñin juon men eo eban lukkun waḷọk ie. Kūjat eo eaar jebarbar ioon jikin ko reutiej im ekkā aer pād wōt im uroro iloan aolepān iiō eo. Wōd ko raar bar jorāān.

Iuṃwin wiik ko an joñan bwil ilo lọjet kar eḷapḷọk jān ekkā, eaar ajeeded an wōd ko joḷọk kōḷar ko aer ipelaakin elōñ ṃōttan Pacific eo eṃāāṇāṇ. Wōd ko raar bōk bukwi iiō aer eddek im ejaak raar erom lukkun ṃouj, ke wōd ko raar joḷọk algae ko reddik im rej mour ilo ānbwinier, ko im rej leḷọk ṃōñā im kōḷar ñan er.

Jet iaan wōd ko raar bar kajoor im mour. Elōñ iaer raar jab.

Tokālik El Niño eo an 2015–16 eaar itok.

Meñe ejjab kar lukkun ḷap an jorāān ilo aolep jikin āinwōt eo an 1997–98, eaar bar kakememej kien ko ilo Pacific joñan an maroñ ṃōkaj waḷọk jabwe in dān.

Jukjukinpād ko raar jino kōjerbal jet wāwein ñan kōjparok im kadikḷọk kōjerbal dān. Raar jino kōjerbal ṃōṇakjān ko an menin idiñ ilo ien ṃōrā. Ri jerbal ro ikijjien ājmour raar kakkōl armej ro bwe ren kōjparok im kadikḷọk aer kōjerbal dān in idaak, im lukkun lale ḷọk wōt erreo eo.

Katak eo eaar lukkun alikkar.

Eḷap an pidodoḷọk ad pojak ṃokta jān an waḷọk juon jorāān, jān ad kajeoñ uwaake juon jorāān ālikin an waḷọk.

Lọjet Ej Kōnono Ṃokta

Ettoḷọk ṃokta jān an satellite ko jino ito-itak ipeḷaakin Iaḷ in, ri ejerakrōk ro ilo Micronesia raar ekkatak kilen kile oktak ko redik im pen ad loi ilo lọjet.

Ṇo ko rej oktak. Aet ko rej oktak. Wāwein ṃakūtkūt an bao ko ekkāritok. An ek ko jino waḷọk ijoko im ejjab ekkā aer waḷọk ie. Wāwein an kōdọ ko ejaak ilo ijo ettolọk lōñ im lọjet rej ioon doon. Men kein raar jab watōki āinwōt meḷeḷe ko kajjojo im ejjeḷọk aer ekkejel ippān doon.

Ilo aer koba ippān doon, raar ejaake juon wāwein in kakkōl ṃokta, eo eaar pedped ioon jeḷā im imminene ko jān bukwi iiō ko.

Today’s scientists use satellites, drifting buoys, underwater sensors and powerful computer models.

Ri katak ro rainin rej kōjerbal satellite ko, kein joñak ko rej jebarbar ilo lọjet, sensor ko iuṃwin dān im computer model ko reḷap aer maroñ.

Bōtaab kōttōpar eo ejja wōt āinwōt kar ṃokta.

Ri ejerakrōk ro kōn kilen etto im ri katak in mejatoto ro rej kajeoñ uwaake ejja kajjitōk in:

Ta eo lọjet ej ba ñan kōj?

Eñin bar juon iaan un ko an mej in ek ko ilo Lamotrek bōk kalimjek eo eḷap jān armej.

Ejjeḷọk ej ba ke an ek ko mej ej kein kaṃool bwe El Niño ekar kōṃṃan men eo eaar waḷọk.

Ejjab bwe kein kaṃool ko rej pād ñan ad maroñ pedped ioon uwaak eo.

Bōtaab men ko iturid im rej waḷọk ilo peḷaakid ekkā aer rōjañ ri katak ro bwe ren kajjitōk kajjitōk ko rekāāl im kakobaiki meḷeḷe ko reḷapḷọk.

Ekar ke ḷapḷọk an māāṇāṇ lọjet eo iloan aelōñ jān mokta? Ekar ke dikḷọk joñan oxygen eo ilo dān jān ekkā? Ekar ke ejaak juon iien eo eḷap an algae ko rekauwōtata eddek im ajeeded ilo dān? Ekar ke waḷọk juon nañinmej eo eaar ajeeded ibwilijin ek in wōd ko? Ak men eo eaar waḷọk eaar ke ejjeḷọk lukkun an ekkejel ippān mejatoto eo ilo region in?

Jerbal in etale eo eṃṃan im kōjparok wōt ej maroñ uwaaki kajjitōk kein. Ñan kiiō, ejjañin alikkar unin an ek ko mej. Bōtaab mejatoto eo ej jino alikkarḷọk.

Pacific Ocean ej wōnṃaanḷọk wōt an ukoktak ñan juon jekjek in El Niño eo ekajoorḷọk, im bwebwenato ej kwaḷọk bwe ekkar Micronesia en lukkun lale ta eo ej waḷọk—jab kōnke eṃool ke juon jorāān enaaj waḷọk, ak kōnke men ko jaar iooni rej bar kwaḷọk ñan kōj ke pojak ṃokta ej kōjparok mour.

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Part 2 (English)

To many people, El Niño simply means hotter weather or less rain. In reality, it is one of the most powerful climate phenomena on Earth.

It begins thousands of miles away along the equatorial Pacific, where the ocean and the atmosphere normally work together in a delicate balance.

Under ordinary conditions, steady trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm surface water toward Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Micronesia. That warm water fuels towering rain clouds, frequent showers and lush tropical conditions across the western Pacific.Meanwhile, colder, nutrient-rich water wells up along the coast of South America, supporting some of the world’s richest fisheries.

During an El Niño, that balance begins to weaken. The trade winds slow. Sometimes they briefly reverse. The warm pool of water that usually sits near Micronesia starts drifting eastward toward the central and eastern Pacific. As the warm water moves, the rain follows it.

For western Micronesia, the consequences can be profound.

Yap. Palau. Guam. The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Much of Chuuk.

These islands often experience declining rainfall as El Niño strengthens. Rainwater catchments receive less replenishment. Streams shrink. Vegetation dries. Crops struggle under increasingly dry conditions.

For low coral atolls such as Lamotrek, Satawal, Woleai and many of Chuuk’s Northwest Islands, the danger is especially acute.

Unlike volcanic islands with rivers and springs, atolls have almost no permanent freshwater.

Instead, they depend almost entirely on rainfall.

Fresh water collects in household tanks or forms a thin underground freshwater lens floating above seawater. During prolonged drought, that freshwater lens shrinks, allowing saltwater to seep upward into wells and taro patches.

One poor rainy season can create hardship.

Several months without meaningful rain can become a humanitarian challenge.

History has shown just how vulnerable these islands can be.

Lessons Written in Drought

Older islanders still remember the El Niño of 1982-83. It was one of the strongest ever observed at the time.

Across Micronesia, rainfall dropped dramatically in many locations. Crops suffered. Communities relied heavily on stored rainwater. Governments scrambled to deliver emergency supplies to remote outer islands.

But it was the 1997-98 El Niño that became etched into memory.

Meteorologists still regard it as one of the most powerful El Niño events ever recorded.

Across western Micronesia, reservoirs declined, rivers slowed to a trickle and rainwater tanks emptied. Wildfires broke out on islands that rarely experienced them. Smoke drifted across hillsides that normally remained green throughout the year. Coral reefs also suffered.

Weeks of unusually warm ocean temperatures triggered widespread coral bleaching across much of the tropical Pacific. Reefs that had taken centuries to develop became ghostly white as corals expelled the tiny algae that provide them with food and color.

Some recovered. Many did not.

Then came the 2015-16 El Niño.

Although not quite as severe everywhere as the 1997-98 event, it once again reminded Pacific governments how quickly water shortages can develop.

Communities introduced water conservation measures. Emergency drought plans were activated. Health officials warned residents to conserve drinking water and monitor sanitation carefully.

The lesson was unmistakable.

Preparation is far easier than crisis response.

The Ocean Speaks First

Long before satellites orbited the Earth, Micronesian navigators learned to recognize subtle changes in the sea.

Different swells. Changing currents. Unusual bird behavior. Fish appearing where they normally did not. Cloud formations on distant horizons. These observations were never isolated facts.

Together they formed an early-warning system built through centuries of experience.

Yet the goal remains remarkably similar.

Both traditional navigators and climate scientists are trying to answer the same question:

What is the ocean telling us?

That is partly why the Lamotrek fish kill has attracted so much attention.

No one is claiming the dead fish prove El Niño caused the event.

There simply is not enough evidence to support that conclusion.

But unusual environmental events often encourage scientists to ask new questions and collect more data.

Was the lagoon unusually warm? Were oxygen levels unusually low? Did a harmful algal bloom develop? Was there a disease outbreak among reef fish? Or was the event entirely unrelated to regional climate?

Only careful investigation can answer those questions. For now, the fish remain a mystery. The climate, however, is becoming less mysterious.

The Pacific Ocean is steadily shifting into a stronger El Niño pattern, and history suggests Micronesia would be wise to pay attention—not because disaster is inevitable, but because experience has repeatedly shown that preparation saves lives.